A baseball fan since 1976, Bruce has been playing fantasy baseball since 1992. A winner in numerous competitive leagues, and an annual participant in thr RK Die Hard leagues, Bruce is also a Moderator for the baseball forums where his years of experience will benefit our readers.

Fantasy Baseball Draft Planning

by Bruce Quinto - Rotokingdom Staff Writer

• Introduction

  The most important day of the fantasy baseball year has arrived. Draft day. It is the nexus, a crossroads, a time during which months of fervent preparation are transformed into more months of ecstatic achievement or miserable failure. The object of the game is to acquire the best team possible, of course, and the best strategy would seem to be the one that gets you the most balanced roster, competitive in all categories. Well maybe... You can call that a strategy, but you cant call that a plan.

  As fantasy owners have matured and players have grown increasingly astute about variations in player preformance from year to year, and as player valuation has become a given, rather then an art or science, the role of luck has increased in any particular season. Why? Because no one has that much of an edge anymore. So the winner may be the guy who gets the least desirable surprising player , rather then the other way around. It doesnt have to be that way. All thoughout the fantasy baseball comunity, enterprising owners are concocting schemes designed to give them an edge in their fantasy league auction or draft. Not all of the strategies listed here will give you an edge. But ff used appropriately, all bring with them the advantage of suprise, and promise at least a whiff of disruption, which may give your team the advantage it needs to win when the margin is very tight.

• Punting
  
  What is it?
  
  You go into a draft deliberately ignoring all players who possess one particular element of skill. Wins, saves, and stolen bases are the most frequently chosen categories to punt. Wins are easy to punt in any type of league, though wins are the commodity teams pay the least for in the draft. Saves have become the popular choice to punt due to the high cost of closers. Some categories don't lend themselves to this strategy. HR's and RBI's are highly interrelated, if you punt one you normally punt the other. Stolen bases and Runs, Era and Whip ,and to a lesser extent Average and RBI's are category pairs. When deciding which category to punt, choose the one that will be the most expensive to win in your particular league. That will save you the most money.

  What do you gain?
  
  First of all, you end up focusing on fewer variables. While others are distrubuting their resources over 10 categories, you are distrubuting them over 9. If done properly, you will finish near the top in those nine categorys. A key element is suprise. If you are not bidding on saves, but spending more on the other categories, market value on all Non-Save pitchers and hitters is a little higher for everyone else. It also means that the market for closers has diminished. The hope is no one notices until they have spent their money.

  Can it succeed?
  
  Yes , if you are able to maximize your return in the categories you dont punt. However any miscalculations on draft day that leave you weak in other categories, could lead to doom. This plan is not recommended if you are playing in a league that starts from scratch each year, at least not on draft day. At some point in the season you may have to punt a category to strengthen your position. If you are in a keeper league, on the other hand, then you may have to punt a category on draft day just because of the players that remain available.

  Risks?

  In smaller leagues, if your plan is figured out early and owners adjust their values, there can be some risk.

  Probable results?

  It's not a sure-fire winning strategy, but if properly executed, you'll enjoy a definite edge in leagues that are competitive.

• Double Punting
  
  What is it?

  Dump the linked Categories. The SWEENEY Plan suggests punting HR and RBI's. The Rookies pitching staff Plan says punt ERA and WHIP. Noboby suggests dumping Average and RBI's because it almost surely means punting HR's also. To make Sweeney work, you need 2-4 of the leagues top SB and Average guys, then you backfill your offense with players with good averages, including pitch hitters. Then, spend heavily on pitching. If you decide to try the Rookies plan, you must spend heavily on offensive categories and saves. Also, buy poor skill, but high innings-pitched starting pitchers from any team.

What do you gain?

You've altered the draft landscape even more, further reducing the variables you must focus on. Prices for your guys are way different than they are for everybody else, so you should have no problem getting players to fit your plan.

Can it succeed?

Only in balanced leagues. Surprise is essential since other teams can justify spending on those high Avg/SB and Closers you need, especially if they think they are denying you. In keeper leagues, it is always nice to have a cheap closer in hand before the draft.

Risks?

Being found out early in the draft. If another team gets lucky, they will easily overwhelm your powerful but limited team. You have less upside -- then again, you have less downside.

Result?

In the right situation, this is an excellent way to get into the money. It is much harder to win, of course.

• The Labadini Plan
  
  What is it?

  Totally sell out for offense, spend 251 on offense, and take the best nine $1 pitchers you can get. Chances are your pitchers will not be good, but during the
  season, trade your excess offense for pitching. The best end game pitchers are middle relievers (you can always get starters later) and pitchers coming off injuries or off-years.

  What do you gain?

  This strategy can make a big impact on the balance of value in the draft. Hitters go up and pitchers cost less. You will have created a scarcity, and once the
  other owners catch on, you are likely to see a run on offense. The end result is that you might get some
  good pitching bargains (there are always some).

  Can it succeed?

  You have to score big in all the offensive categories. You have to be able to drop and replace players quickly. Waiting too long in some cases can be disasterous. You must be confident in your trading abilities.

  Risks?

  If other owners are ticked off that you stooped to such an extreme draft gimmick, they may not trade with you. You need to trade to make this plan work.

  Result?

  If you can make the trades to improve your staff, you have a great chance to finish in the money. If you hit the lotto with one of your $1 starters (there are a
  couple every year), you will have a huge advantage in your league.

• The Bernhard Plan

  This plan was named after Sandra Bernhard because, like her, it is so ugly it is beautiful. Don't Punt, diversify. Instead of punting categories, draft a team
  where every batter gets 400-500 AB's. If you succeed, you will lead your league in AB's and finish in the top 3 in all hitting categories on sheer volume alone.

  What do you gain?

  A successful Bernhard will net you 42% of the total points from your hitters. That means you only need to capture a third of the potential pitching points to
  reach 75% of all points, which is usually enough to finish in the money. This strategy works well in 5x5 leagues. In addition, building a team around middle-of-the-road hitters gives you an offense that can better withstand injury.

  Can it succeed?

  You have to be content with a grind-it-out offense with no superstars.

  Risks?

  You have a reduced pitching budget and no strategy. If you don't get 1/3 of all pitching points, you are sunk.

  Result?

  Tricky to execute. It's easy to end up without enough bodies and no one left to draft. But it definitely offers a high probability of finishing in the money if you can pull off the draft.

• Lima Plan (Low Investment Mound Aces)

  What is it?

  Budget a maximum of $60 for pitching, targeting half of that for saves. Spend the remaining money on starters who have a statistical profile of 2.0 K/BB ratio, 6.0 K/9 IP rate and allow 1.0 HR/9 IP, regardless of what their role or ERA is. Try to draft the minimum number of innings you need in your league, and buy all the offense you can.

  What do you gain?

  Pitching skill is often inexpensive and acquirable if you know how to identify pitchers ready to make a step forward. A Lima staff should do very well in ERA and WHIP at a relatively low cost. Drafting fewer innings pitched will allow you to make in-season adjustments.

  Can it succeed?

  Yes, especially if other owners spend liberally on the top starting pitchers. This plan has drawn the most attention, and these type pitchers have increased
  in value.

  Risks?

  You have to finish in the top 3 in saves. This strategy is also more diffcult to pull off in leagues with high innings pitched minimum requirements (more
  then 1000 IP).

  Result?

  If you get the right pitchers, finshing in the money is common. In tightly contested leagues, winning is possible.

• High Target Drafting

  What is it?

  Eliminate high risk players by drafting only those that meet these criteria:

  - Must be between 25 and 34 years old
  - Must not be coming off an injury of any kind
  - Must not have changed teams, unless he is in the same league and in the same role.
  - Batters must have a batting eye ratio (BB/K) of .50 or greater
  - Pitchers must have a control ratio of (K/BB) of 1.75 or greater.
  - Player values at more then $20 must contribute in at least 4 categories.

  Sort these players by position to find pockets of similar value, and then group them into dollar ranges. Buy players to fill these spots.

  Batters: Two x $25-30 , One x $20-25 , Two x $15-20 ,
  One x $10-15 , Four x $5-10 , Four x $1-5

  Pitchers: One x $20-25 , Two x $15-20 , One x $10-15 ,
  Two x $5-10 , Three x $1-5

  What do you gain?

  By focusing on a lesser number of specific players in your planning, you should be in a better position to focus on in-draft dynamics. By eliminating the risky
  players from the pool, you assume solidity, then scramble for tactical edge.

  Can it succeed?

  You need to have at least three draftable players for each open slot. You have to be flexible. The draft isn't always going to go smoothly. Don't panic!

  Risks?

  If all the players you have slotted for the highest range go for more money, you may have to overbid on the next group in order to secure them. At that point, you must adjust your budget on the fly.

  Result?

  There is no particular advantage here, but if you properly use the extra focus mandated by this approach, you should be in a better position to take advantage of the errors of others.

• Conclusion

  This article may disappoint some. Why is that? Well, many will look for an article like this to be the answer, the gospel, the grail. It is not. Many roto players are looking for THE strategy, the perfect plan. Yet that strategy doesn't exist. In football, some teams win with the wishbone. Some teams win with the I, and some win in the run-n-shoot. In baseball, some teams win with speed and some win with the three-run homer. The bottom line is that there are many ways to be successful. This is true of fantasy baseball as well. If there was one best way, we all would use that strategy. You have to take into account the hand you have been dealt and use the plan that maximizes your hand.

- Bruce Quinto - RotoKingdom Staff Writer