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Mike has been a contributing writer for numerous web sites. Since 2004, he has won 8 of the 24 fantasy baseball leagues he has participated in and finished in the top 3 in 17 of 24. Including winning in 2007 the Die Hard 2, 20 team league which is one of RotoKingdom's top leagues, and will compete in the Die Hard 1 league this year.

2008 Fantasy Baseball 1st Base/DH Review

by Mike Venancio (aka DumbHick) - Rotokingdom Staff Writer

 
St Louis Cardinal slugger Albert Pujols again leads the way at first base.
 
After hitting 50 homers in 2007, what will the 23 year-old Fielder do for an encore?
 
The 2006 AL MVP should have an even better season than he did in 2007.
 
In his first full season in the majors, Gonzalez put up numbers that showed he is the future of the Padres.

I’m going to discuss the position that usually includes one of the better players on most fantasy teams. First Base. There’s no getting away from it. Without at least one or two pure sluggers on your team, chances are your team will not be near the top of the power categories. And first base is a good position to acquire them.

No fewer than 10 first sackers hit 30 homers in 2007. And 20 of them reached the 20-homer plateau. Also, 11 knocked in 100 runs or more. This does not include players solely eligible at DH. In our annual RotoKingdom Mock Draft (12-team), eleven players were taken in the 1st three rounds that were eligible at first base. The rankings below were comprised from our experts average of 7 individual player rankings.

1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals – Ranked number 1 across the board. It’s hard to imagine that a season consisting of 32 homers, 103 RBI’s and a .332 batting average is an “off-year”, but comparing it to his previous seasons, it was. It shows the expectations that fantasy players have for him. Don’t be fooled like many did last year with A-Rod. He’s still a top 3 pick in any league. The only concern I have is his elbow. He opted not to have off-season surgery so hopefully it won’t flare up on him this year and cause him to miss significant time. Pujols was drafted 2nd overall by our resident baseball moderator BlackLabel.

2. Ryan Howard, Phillies – Ranked high as 2nd, low as 4th, Howard’s average slipped to .268 and he struck-out 199 times in 2007. In only 144 games, he did hit 47 home runs and drove in 136 runs. Bothered by a quad injury that caused him to miss a few weeks in the first half, his damage was done mostly during the second half of the season. Expect his batting average to rise slightly, and with it a legitimate shot at 50+ home runs. Ryan was drafted 7th overall by expert Dave Meyer, and that is the area where he should be drafted.

3. David Ortiz, Red Sox – “Big Papi” was ranked high as 2nd and low as 5th. Chronic knee issues plagued him throughout 2007, and may have contributed to a lower home run total than was expected at 35. But his average rose to .332. Ortiz certainly isn’t “fragile”, but his knee issue does consider watching. Healthy, those numbers will probably be disproportional with a rise in his home run total and a lowering of his average. 40+ home runs with an average around .310 are projections. Ortiz was selected 17th overall by Bruce Quinto. Good value here.

4. Prince Fielder, Brewers – Ranked between 3rd and 5th, Fielder lived up to his high expectations last year. At only 23 years old, it’s easy to see why he should put up numbers similar to last year. The youngest player in MLB history to hit 50 home runs, Prince should approach that number again this year. A small improvement in plate discipline could improve his average to the .300 plateau. Selected 13th overall by our expert Stephen Pavlik, this was a great pick-up as Fielder has been a 1st round pick in many mock drafts I have seen.

5. Mark Teixiera, Braves – The disparity in the rankings starts to show here as Teixiera is ranked high as 2nd by expert Derrick Boyd, and low as 7th by other resident expert Jeff Bobzin. Acquired by Atlanta at the trade deadline in 2007, Mark was better for the Braves than he was for Texas. In only 54 games for the Braves he slugged 17 homers, drove in 56 runs while batting .317. In a line-up tailor made for him, he should easily surpass his 2007 season totals of 30/105/.306. On cue, Boyd selected him with the 3rd pick of the 2nd round.

6. Lance Berkman, Astros – His rank from a low of 9th to a high of 5th, may be attributed to his slow start in 2007. He rebounded nicely however to post numbers of 34/102/.278. Expect a better start in 2008 and with it a slight increase in his batting average. This could bring him close to the numbers of Pujols, but at a much cheaper price. His OF eligibility is a bonus. A great pick by BlackLabel as the 2nd pick in round three gives him the dual threats of Pujols and Berkman.

7. Travis Hafner, Indians – “Pronk” to say the least, had a down year in 2007, which didn’t show in our ranks as he was placed from 5th to 9th. Apparently in the belief that 2007 was an abomination. 24 homers with 100 RBI’s are solid numbers but his .266 average after three previous seasons of over .300 gives some cause for concern. This may drop him down in some drafts, but don’t hesitate to take him in the 3rd round as our expert Dustin Ward did, with the 11th selection in the 3rd round.

8. Justin Morneau, Twins – The Twins slugger suffered through a dreadful power slump last year in which he hit just 3 homers in the months of August and September combined. Explaining our rank discrepancy from 6th to 12th. Nevertheless 31 home runs, 11 runs batted in, albeit a .271 average is still a good season overall. At 26, he’s entering his prime years and he should increase his batting average and home run production. Taken in the 3rd round with the 5th pick by expert Seth Beuhnerkemper, Morneau should justify this selection.

9. Derrek Lee, Cubs – Consistency among our rankers at 8th and 10th. Lee rebounded rather nicely from his 2006 injury-plagues year, but we also saw a major power outage as he hit only 22 homers from the 46 he hit two years ago. 82 RBI’s while not bad, was still below expectations from those who owned him last year as well as his stolen base total of 6. He did hit .317. It’s not hard to expect an increase in the power numbers, but don’t expect anything near 2006. The 43rd player selected in our draft by expert Kegan Mercadante, if Derrek provides a bit more power production, this is a good value pick.

10. Carlos Pena, Devil Rays – Pena stunned fantasy players last year by breaking out and mashing an AL-leading 46 home runs. Tack on 121 RBI’s and a respectable .282 batting average and this was the making of an outstanding season. Whether he will be a “one-year wonder” however is difficult to say. RotoKingdom founder and expert Jason Aufderhaar has him ranked highest at 6th while Derrick Boyd has him 13th. Drafted in the 4th round with the 10th pick by yours truly, I felt even a 25% reduction in his power numbers would produce a 35 homer, 92 RBI season.

The Best of the Rest

11. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres – A huge disparity in the rankings. From 6th to 19th. Only 25, his power is still developing. Taken in round 5 by Bruce Quinto with his 8th pick, numbers of 30/100/.282 as last year’s were certainly warrants this selection.

12. Garett Atkins, Rockies – It appears his ranking of 10th to 17th is an indication that his position eligibility at third base also is a factor. He will more than likely be used at third base but his numbers of .301/25/111 justify Steve Pavlik’s selection of him with the last pick in round 5.

13. Paul Konerko, White Sox – Ranked by our experts between 10th and 17th, Konerko is a fantasy enigma. You really never know what you are going to get. The 31 homers and 90 RBI’s were nice, but a .259 batting average was not. Will he rebound is a key question. I expect he will. Taken by Steve Pavlik with the last pick in round 7.

14. Victor Martinez, Indians – I ranked him highest at 9th. The low was 22nd. My feeling was that his numbers of .301/25/114 could make an argument for ranking him that high alone, but with catcher eligibility his value increases. Using him solely as a first baseman, while not wise, could be done if your starter at the position gets injured. I chose him with the 3rd pick of the 3rd round.

15. Jim Thome, White Sox – The first true DH to come off the board. Unless he somehow sees time at first base, you can only use him at your utility slot. Still with that in mind, he ranked 13th to 19th. His selection with the 4th pick in the 12th round by WestrayKnight was a steal. Getting 35/95/.275 that late in the draft shows the depth of this position..

Veteran players left out include Carlos Guillen, Todd Helton, Carlos Delgado, Frank Thomas (another DH only), Nick Swisher, Richie Sexson and Jason Giambi. There are more. Some of these players should be available in the middle rounds with the exception of Guillen who will be selected as a shortstop. Some have injury issues, some are frankly on the downward side of their careers, and others have shown promise, but are not quite there yet. But a veteran like Helton can certainly help you in certain categories as will players like Delgado, Thomas, Giambi, and Swisher.

Then you have the up and coming players with plenty of potential, but not enough experience to warrant top consideration. In keeper leagues however, you may take a risk early in the middle rounds to grab one of these youngsters in the hope they break out. These include Alex Gordon, James Loney, Joey Votto, Billy Butler, Ryan Garko, Daric Barton, Conor Jackson and Adam LaRoche. All have talent and are being groomed by their respective teams.

As you can see by the production that the top 15 players bring to the stat line, where they were drafted, and the quality of players left off that list, that this is a very deep position. The numbers do start to drop off, however, drop off after the first 15. So acquiring two of these sluggers in a 12-team league is almost a must. Or at least one top-5 and a lesser tier. If you have any questions or just wish to discuss this article or others, please visit our baseball forums here at rotokingdom.

- Mike Venancio – RotoKingdom Staff Writer





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