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Mike has been a contributing writer for numerous web sites. Since 2004, he has won 8 of the 24 fantasy baseball leagues he has participated in and finished in the top 3 in 17 of 24. Including winning in 2007 the Die Hard 2, 20 team league which is one of RotoKingdom's top leagues, and will compete in the Die Hard 1 league this year.

2008 Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Preview

by Mike Venancio (aka DumbHick) - Rotokingdom Staff Writer

 
A rising star, Ramirez should be a fantasy force again this season.
 
Reigning NL Rookie of the Year Troy Tulowski should continue to improve and fill up fantasy stat sheets.
 
Greene could provide great value in latter rounds of your draft.
 
Despite struggling at the plate last year, Drew could be a nice surprise for those willing to gamble on him.

Spring Training has officially started, and with it the start of the fantasy baseball season. Fantasy players from around the world will begin their preparation for their drafts in the next six weeks. An important thing about planning for your draft is to have your players broken down by position into tiers, and from there you determine the appropriate players to take and when to take them. This for a standard 12 team 5x5 rotisserie league.

This article is about what was once one of the thinner positions in fantasy baseball, but now is one of the deepest. Shortstop. I’m going to break the players down by tiers, and then give you my projections for 2008 and which rounds should be appropriate to draft them. And the range our experts ranked them.

Tier 1 (Rounds 1-3)

All 3 of these players have a rare combination of power and speed at a position where it gives you an advantage on your opponents if your lucky enough to land any of them. These shortstops this year will probably be 1’st round picks in most drafts.

1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins – At 25 years of age, his future is bright and he should remain a fantasy force for years to come. The numbers he put up across the board was both unexpected, especially his power numbers, and filled stat lines like few others. He hit .332 with 29 home runs and 81 runs batted in. Added to that he scored 125 runs with 51 stolen bases. Expect a decline in his runs scored with the loss of Miguel Cabrera, but possibly an increase in stolen bases to get himself in scoring position earlier. High Rank 1. Low Rank 3

Projection:

Average

Runs

HR

RBI

SB

.318

110

24

79

55

2. Jose Reyes, Mets – Another 25 year old, Reyes suffered through a late season slump and some of his numbers showed it. A .280 average, 12 homers, 57 runs batted in, with 78 stolen bases and 119 runs scored. He also increased his walk total over the previous year going to 77 from 53. I expect some increase in his home run production as well as runs batted in. The rest of his numbers should remain constant. High Rank 1. Low Rank 3.

Projection:

Average

Runs

HR

RBI

SB

.283

115

18

70

72

3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies – At 30 years old, the 2007 NL MVP enjoyed a career year. He joined the 30-30 club with 30 homers and 41 stolen bases. Rollins also hit .296, scored league-high 139 runs and drove in 94. You would be hard pressed to count on similar production from him again this year, but his numbers should still be elite among shortstops. High Rank 2. Low Rank 3.

Projection:

Average

Runs

HR

RBI

SB

.282

112

23

88

37

Tier 2 (Rounds 4-6)

4. Troy Tulowitski, Rockies – In his first full season in the majors, the 24 year-old Tulowitski won both the NL Rookie of the Year as well as a Gold Glove. His numbers were outstanding hitting .291, with 24 home runs, 99 runs batted in, 104 runs scored with 7 stolen bases. What is some cause for concern are his away numbers. If those numbers improve, it could vault him into elite status. High Rank 4. Low Rank 13.

Average

HR

RBI

OPS

Home

.326

15

60

.960

Away

.256

9

39

.719

Projection:

Average

Runs

HR

RBI

SB

.285

105

28

104

9

5. Derek Jeter, Yankees – Despite turning 34 years old, Jeter shows no signs of decline at the plate, though he did show a decrease in stolen base production stealing only 15 in 2007 and his percentage has dropped. But he did hit .322, with 12 homers and 73 runs batted in and scored 102 runs out of the number two hole where he will hit again this year. High Rank 4. Low Rank 6.

Projection:

Average

Runs

HR

RBI

SB

.318

105

14

70

14

6. Miguel Tejada, Astros – This year Tejada switches leagues and will be in a hitter’s park and also won’t have to deal with the pitching in the AL East. Last year was first season he was hurt as well after six seasons of not missing a game. He’s also got the steroid issue to deal with. At 32, his numbers have declined slowly from his monstrous season of 2004. With an average of .296, only 18 homers, 81 RBI’s, and 72 runs scored, it’s a far cry from what we are used to seeing. Expect a rebound from him. They won’t be the MVP type numbers of the past, but they will certainly help your stat line. High Rank 6. Low Rank 7.

Projection:

Average

Runs

HR

RBI

SB

.304

92

26

97

2

7. Michael Young, Rangers – A model of consistency, at age 31, Young has amassed 200+ hits for 5 straight seasons. His HR production has declined steadily since 2005, however. That number should go up a bit, but what he brings to the table is a solid batting average and for those leagues where hits is a category, he’ll help you since he doesn’t walk a whole lot with only 47 last year. Considering he was only hitting .215 at the end of April, and .257 at the end of May, his average of .315, with 9 home runs, 94 runs batted in, 80 runs scored, could have been much higher. Young also stole 13 bases. If you can get him in rounds 6 or 7, you are getting good value. High Rank 7. Low Rank 11.

Projection:

Average

Runs

HR

RBI

SB

.320

85

13

88

12

8. Carlos Guillen, Tigers – Guillen will be the Tigers first baseman this year. Why then, do I have him ranked so high as a shortstop? The answer is clear. You will get solid first baseman numbers from him at a position where power production is scarce. At age 32, he hit .296, hit 21 homers, and drove in 102 runs, scored 86, to go along with 13 stolen bases. Not having to play what is one of the toughest positions to play in baseball should help his numbers across the board. As will the line-up surrounding him. And for those of you worried about future eligibility, he may get the required 5 games started in yahoo leagues. High Rank 5. Low Rank 8.

Projection:

Average

Runs

HR

RBI

SB

.300

92

25

110

12

Tier 3 (Rounds 7-11)

9. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox – Despite the move to the White Sox, the 34 year-old Gold Glove winner, should still post decent numbers. Last years stats were 8 homers, 86 RBI’s, a .301 batting average, with 101 runs scored and 20 stolen bases. I don’t expect him to hit as well as he did with a much more potent Angels line-up around him. But he’s solid and should get you some stolen production and score some runs. High Rank 9. Low Rank 16.

Projection:

Average

Runs

HR

RBI

SB

.277

90

9

75

22

10. Khalil Greene, Padres – I might be reaching a bit here, but at 28 years old, I feel Greene is starting to show why he was so highly touted. The power is there as judged by his 27 homers last year. He also drove in 97 runs and scored 89 with 4 stolen bases. The flip side was his paltry .254 batting average. I believe the power is real. If he showed more plate discipline as his 128 strikeouts suggests he doesn’t, he would be ranked higher. In our mock draft, I took him with my last pick in round 21 as a back up to Hanley. Insanity. High Rank 10. Low Rank 17.

Projection:

Average

Runs

HR

RBI

SB

.273

93

25

102

5

11. Jhonny Peralta, Indians – Another player who lacks plate discipline, which has hampered his performance. But at only 25 years old, he is entering his prime years. After a horrific 2006 season, he rebounded to hit .270 with 21 homers, 72 runs batted in, scoring 87 runs and stealing 4 bases. A notorious fastball hitter, if he could lay off the “pitcher’s pitch”, there’s no limit on what his production could be. High Rank 10. Low Rank 14.

Projection:

Average

Runs

HR

RBI

SB

.267

85

23

81

2

12. Rafael Furcal, Dodgers – Furcal started off very slowly last year. Part of which was due to an ankle injury he suffered during spring training and seemed to hamper him all year. He certainly didn’t give his owners last year what they thought he would bring. He hit .270, had only 6 home runs, drove in 47, but did score 87 runs and steal 25 bases. Furcal is healthy heading into this year and he should revert back to his 2006 numbers at least. At 30 years old, he should increase his numbers across the board. He will give you stolen bases, runs scored and a decent batting average. Look elsewhere for power. High Rank 5. Low Rank 12.

Projection:

Average

Runs

HR

RBI

SB

.280

95

12

62

34


Tier 4 (Rounds 11-15)

13. Edgar Renteria, Tigers – Edgar hit .332 last year, which was a career high. In 124 games, the 31 year old also hit 12 homers, knocked in 57 runs to go along with 87 runs scored and 11 stolen bases. I feel however, the numbers that give him value will decrease because of where he will hit in a loaded Tiger line-up. It’s likely that he will hit eighth or possibly ninth. Not second, like he did last year with the Braves. High Rank 10. Low Rank 15.

Projection:

Average

Runs

HR

RBI

SB

.288

85

12

65

12

14. J. J. Hardy, Brewers – Last April and May alone, Hardy accounted for more than half of his 26 home runs and 80 runs batted in. It’s highly unlikely he ever goes through a stretch like that again. He also hit .277, scored 89 runs and stole 2 bases. But the 25 year old has the ability to produce in a good Milwaukee line-up. High Rank 9. Low Rank 18.

Projection:

Average

Runs

HR

RBI

SB

.272

88

18

76

4

15. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks – It’s fair to say the 25 year-old Drew struggled at the plate in his first full year as the starter. With 12 homers, 60 runs batted in, 60 runs scored and 9 stolen bases, his batting average was an anemic .238 along with an OBP of just .313. With a year’s seasoning under his belt, we should see an increase in his production. Somewhere between last year and his stint in 2006 where he hit .316 in 209 at-bats. High Rank 13. Low Rank 21.

Projection:

Average

Runs

HR

RBI

SB

.268

77

16

75

12

Tier 5 (Round 16+)

16. Julio Lugo, Red Sox – Despite hitting only .238 in a season prolonged slump, the 32 year-old Lugo still managed to provide his owners with 73 RBI’s and 33 stolen bases in a loaded Boston line-up. He also had 8 homers and scored 71 runs. If he can hit well enough to warrant hitting out of the two spot, expect a rise from his run production. It’s interesting to note that he hit .305 batting ninth last year. If your looking for stolen bases and run production late in the draft, he could be a great value pick. High Rank 10. Low Rank 17.

Projection:

Average

Runs

HR

RBI

SB

.260

80

10

65

27

17. Felipe Lopez, Nationals – At 28 years old, the switch-hitting Lopez has never lived up to his potential. Last year his batting average slipped to .245 to go along with 9 home runs, 50 runs batted in, 70 runs scored with a career-high 24 stolen bases. Headed for arbitration, his main value is stolen bases. The 23 home runs from 2005, I believe is a thing of the past. High Rank 9. Low Rank 19.

Projection:

Average

Runs

HR

RBI

SB

.258

77

10

55

23

18. Bobby Crosby, A’s – Originally I had Crosby ranked a bit higher, but the 28 year old oft-injured SS has not significantly improved his numbers and still strikes out a lot. Last year’s numbers in only 93 games were a batting average of .226, 8 homers, 31 RBI’s, along with 40 runs scored and 10 stolen bases. It would be nice to see what he could do healthy for a full season. The potential is there, but not worth a higher pick. High Rank 15. Low Rank 28.

Projection

Average

Runs

HR

RBI

SB

.248

70

15

68

15

Top Sleepers

Khalil Greene, Padres

Julio Lugo, Red Sox

Yunel Escobar, Braves

Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians

- Mike Venancio - RotoKingdom Staff Writer




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