2008 Outfield Rankings – The Pups

This year’s OF crop is perhaps the deepest in recent memory. There are aging vets who are still providing value to their owners, from Ken Griffey Jr. & Maggilo Ordonez, to Kenny Lofton & Dave Roberts. There are the elite who are in the midst of their prime years like Matt Holliday, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, and Carl Crawford to name a few. Then there is the group that makes this year’s throng so deep – The Pups – those 24 years of age and under. Let’s take a look at a few of those players and perhaps answer a few of the head-spinning questions that are stumping many of our peers throughout the fantasy baseball community.

Will Jay Bruce emerge as a superstar in Cincinnati? Is Justin Upton ready to handle the big role in Right Field the D-Backs have created for him by trading Carlos Gonzalez and Carlos Quentin? Can Colby Rasmus fill the enormous defensive shoes left in St. Louis’ center field by Gold Glover Jim Edmonds? Is Lastings Milledge ready to give up his dead-end rap career and take seriously the challenge of manning center field and hitting in the middle of the lineup in the most powerful city in the world? How will Delmon Young adjust to this first season in Minnesota? Cameron Maybin is a huge piece of the Marlins future, but is he really ready for the big leagues after only 69 at bats above high Class A?

All of these questions will remain unanswered until well after fantasy baseball drafts are complete. However unanswered questions can lead to serious bargains at the draft table. I wish to focus on a few of these Pups that I think will be undervalued on draft day.

Delmon Young was at the top of everyone’s sleeper list last season. He was Baseball America’s top prospect in 2006 and ranked #3 on that same list before the beginning of the 2007 season. In the eyes of most people Delmon’s 2007 season was a major disappointment. While 13 HR and 10 SB over 645 at bats is nothing to shout about, I wish to focus on a few positives that can be taken from Delmon’s first taste of the big leagues.

• He recorded 645 at bats in his rookie season.
• He played in ALL 162 games.
• He didn’t seem to tire toward the end of the season as many rookies do, but rather stepped it up a bit and hit .300 after the All Star Break.
• He will play pretty much the entire 2008 season at 22 years of age and he has much more power upside – so we should be able to expect him to hit more balls over the fences in 08 and in the future as his age and strength increase.

2008 Projection: .285 BA, .315 OBP, 16 HR, 21 SB, 84 RBI, 81 RUNS

Chris Young is no secret to the fantasy baseball world. His surprising near 30/30 rookie season certainly raised a few eyebrows. However, no matter how sexy the power and speed combo looks, the sub .240 BA and sub .300 OBP cause men everywhere to freeze, uncertain whether to move forward or run far away – much like the proverbial tall, shapely blonde with a case of halitosis bad enough to clear a room. The positive is that those who merely look at the superficial numbers will be fooled into thinking Young is a Mike Cameron clone at best and will never hit for good average – thus the reason he is on this list.

In reality Chris Young has the inherent skills to hit for much better average and on base percentage. Through his Minor League career Young was a .267 hitter, whose OBP was 91 points better at .358. During the 2006 season Young recorded a career high 86% Contact Rate. A player’s ability to make contact is often the key to consistently high batting averages. I truly believe that Young has the tools to be a .280-.290 hitter, who walks enough to maintain a .380 OBP in his prime. I also expect his BA to rise significantly in 2008.

Young averaged out as the 23rd ranked OF on the RotoKingdom Positional Rankings. However, a closer look shows a wide discrepancy between the individual rankers. Young was ranked as high as 14th by SethBeno and as low as 32nd by the RotoKing himself. So don’t be fooled into thinking that you’re the only one in your league that is in on this little secret. Others know, but hopefully they are counting on him being undervalued and sleep on him, hoping to maximize draft value, allowing you to swoop in on the chandeliers and nab him a round, or even a pick before your unsuspecting draft-mate.

2008 Projection: .262 BA, .324 OBP, 31 HR, 24 SB, 88 RBI, 92 RUNS

Colby Rasmus and Cameron Maybin are listed together because of how similar their situations are. Both are athletic CF who have tantalizing power/speed skills. Both seem to have problems with breaking balls and strike out way too much, but those drawbacks are not uncommon for hitters of their ilk. Neither of them has much experience at the upper levels of pro baseball, yet each will have the opportunity to win the CF job along with an everyday spot in the lineup for their respective teams this spring.

While Rasmus and Maybin are names that are well known throughout keeper and dynasty leagues, they are not household names for the average fantasy baseball manager. Even those who are familiar with these players don’t really know how they will perform if given a spot in the everyday lineup. Well I’m hear to tell you that while either or both may get off to a slow start and perhaps even record a few minor league ABs in 08, both will have fantasy value by the end of the season and both could be major bargains on draft day.

Rasmus 2008 Projection: .251 BA, .329 OBP, 16 HR, 15 SB, 59 RBI, 65 RUNS 425 AB
Maybin 2008 Projection: .259 BA, .341 OBP, 14 HR, 25 SB, 56 RBI, 69 RUNS 425 AB

I’ll conclude with my list of outfielders that are Undervalued or Overvalued coming into the 2008 season. These lists merely reflect what I expect in 08, relative to that player’s 2007 performance and their perceived value throughout much of the fantasy world. Players on the Overvalued list may very well outperform players on the Undervalued list, but these lists are not intended to reflect such.

Undervalued

Milton Bradley
Alex Rios
Corey Hart
Felix Pie
Hunter Pence
Willy Taveras
Jeremy Hermida
Matt Kemp
Vernon Wells
Andruw Jones
Shane Victorino
Jason Kubel
Luke Scott
Josh Hamilton
Jason Bay

Overvalued

Gary Sheffield
Eric Byrnes
Justin Upton
BJ Upton
Magglio Ordonez
Curtis Granderson
Bobby Abreu
Chone Figgins
Johnny Damon
Reggie Willits

- Derrick Boyd - RotoKingdom Staff Writer