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Jeff has 15+ years of fantasy baseball experience. He is a self proclaimed auction draft expert finishing in top three in 8 of the 9 past seasons. A RotoKingdom member since 2004, he currently holds the Team Leader position for the baseball forums.

2008 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

by Jeff Bobzin - Rotokingdom Staff Writer

Here we are. It’s 2008 and a new baseball season is quickly approaching. It’s the time of year where many fantasy owners dust off their spreadsheets to begin their preparation or search the web frantically in search of rankings, cheat sheets and sleepers.  Although it may be slightly premature, I am going to share my early 2008 value picks. Of course, we’re 6 weeks away from the beginning of the season and most drafts won’t begin until mid March, but let’s have some fun with it. Here are some guys that should out perform their ADP & supply fantasy owners with plenty of value. 2008 projections are below each player.

Catcher / Geovany Soto (Cubs) – Soto exploded onto the scene in 2007 hitting 0.353 for AAA Iowa. The success continued during a September call-up as he hit 0.389 in 54 at bats. More impressively is his sudden power surge. Soto swatted 29 baseballs into the stands between Iowa and Chicago and has quickly become a favorite of Sweet Lou. Owners should somewhat temper expectations however. Before 2007, Soto had never shown this type of production. However, a catcher’s bat is normally the last thing to come around. The emphasis with a young catcher is defense and staff handling. So it is possible that he has simply turned a corner. It’s hard to imagine anyone hitting 29 homers and batting 0.360 on accident.

AB

H

AVG

HR

RBI

R

SB

OBP

470

148

0.315

16

53

51

0

0.352

First Base / James Loney (Dodgers) – The Dodgers keep turning out prospects and this season, it could be Loney’s turn to turn some heads. He has been labeled with the ‘developing power’ tag, but last season should be an indication that it is already here. In 448 career at bats, Loney has already slugged 19 homers. So the 20 HR power is already there. The real value lies in his ability to knock in runs and turn in high batting averages. He hit 0.331 in LA last season after hitting 0.380 for AAA Las Vegas in 2006. At the very least, expect Todd Helton type numbers. His ceiling is much higher.

AB

H

AVG

HR

RBI

R

SB

OBP

520

165

0.317

22

90

81

1

0.370

Second Base / Kelly Johnson  (Braves) -  I have advised people for 3+ years now that this guy could swing a bat. After finally staying healthy for a full season, he proved me right. With a full MLB season under his belt, he will entire the 2008 season without the stress of learning a new position and should be very relaxed. The departure of Edgar Renteria means that he will not be sharing time with Yunel Escobar this season. Those worried about his at bats against lefties need not fret. Johnson still hit 0.272 off southpaws last year and has shown the ability his entire career. Feel confident adding him as your #1 second baseman once the more overhyped players are off the board, especially in leagues that reward OBP.

AB

H

AVG

HR

RBI

R

SB

OBP

540

152

0.282

18

72

88

8

0.370

Third Base / Edwin Encarnacion (Reds) – After a terrible start to his 2007 season, Edwin was demoted to AAA, but returned with a bang after the All-Star break. He posted an OPS of 0.847 after the break with 10 homers & 14 doubles while hitting 0.309 in the process. Batting in that lineup with that ballpark, Edwin should see continued success in 2008.

AB

H

AVG

HR

RBI

R

SB

OBP

525

154

0.293

22

84

75

11

0.353

Third Base / Kevin Kouzmanoff  (Padres) – Kouzmanoff is another third baseman that struggled out of the gate, but really raised some eyebrows with his second half performance. Bettering the numbers of Encarnacion, he posted an OPS of 0.890 with 11 homers while batting at a 0.318 clip. In 1300+ minor league at bats, he had an OPS of 0.951 and hit 0.332. The only downfall is the park that he plays in, but all the talent is there.

AB

H

AVG

HR

RBI

R

SB

OBP

515

153

0.296

23

81

66

1

0.347

Shortstop / Rafael Furcal (Dodgers) – While Furcal may not be your prototypical sleeper, he has some nice bounceback value after an injury riddled 2007 season. On top of the injury bug, Juan Pierre was as large reason for Raffy’s decreased steal totals. Batting in front of an aggressive hitter gives base runners fewer chances to run and less looks at the pitcher. Joe Torre could bat Loney & Martin in the two hole this season which would help Furcal’s value a lot. Watch how the lineup plays out this spring. Oh, did I mention this is a walk season as well? Buy now.

AB

H

AVG

HR

RBI

R

SB

OBP

610

174

0.286

12

53

106

32

0.353

Outfield / Matt Kemp (Dodgers) - Has anyone been noticing a trend here? Ok, I admit, I am a Dodger homer, but what is there not to like about Matt Kemp? There is a good reason why his name keeps coming up in trade talks with the likes of Johan Santana and Erik Bedard. There is also a good reason why Ned Coletti has held on to his young stud. Kemp possesses great five tool ability and a lot of raw power. In 2006, pitcher’s found the hole in his swing with breaking balls away. In 2007, Kemp was driving those pitches over the RF fence. He made some base running blunders last season, so Torre may not be as aggressive on the bases as Grady Little was, but he should produce across the board.

AB

H

AVG

HR

RBI

R

SB

OBP

540

165

0.305

25

88

78

15

0.353

Outfield / Jeremy Hermida (Marlins) – Now, if you listened to me last season, I pointed owners in the direction of such OF breakthroughs as Alex Rios & Corey Hart as well as declaring Matt Holliday the undisputed #1 fantasy outfielder in front of the likes of Vlad, Manny, ect. Those that were smart enough to listen enjoyed some tremendous production. This season, enter Jeremy Hermida to the crop blooming outfielders. Just two seasons ago, Hermida was labeled as a uber prospect with amazing potential that owners drooled over. After a year and a half of injuries, the honeymoon is over and the light as dimmed on Hermida. In the second half of 2007 however, he showed everyone once again why he was rated so highly.  In 256 post All-Star break at bats, Hermida hit 0.340, with 10 homers while posting an OPS of 0.956! He was also tied for the league lead in post ASB doubles with 23. It was somewhat discouraging to see him only attempt 2 steals in the second half, but perhaps with an entire offseason of training, rather than rehabbing, it will bring this future stud back into the spotlight.

AB

H

AVG

HR

RBI

R

SB

OBP

490

145

0.295

26

82

72

13

0.375

Outfield / Wily Mo Pena (Nationals) – Pena is another player that enjoyed some solid second half numbers. While he won’t help in the way of batting average, he is a big time power threat and with the Nationals getting out of RFK and into a more neutral environment, he has a good shot at hitting 30+ bombs. The OF there in Washington has become somewhat of a logjam, but he should get 500+ at bats.

AB

H

AVG

HR

RBI

R

SB

OBP

510

134

0.262

31

77

66

3

0.311

Starting Pitcher / Zach Greinke (Royals) – Greinke has always showed good command and plus secondary offerings. After pitching most of the season out of the pen, he discovered a fastball that could touch the upper 90’s. The results were improved ratios across the board. The success continued after a return to the rotation in the late summer. While the wins may not be there, he should provide owners with solid ratios and better than average strikeout numbers.

ERA

W

IP

K

WHIP

3.80

12

191

152

1.24

Starting Pitcher / Adam Wainwright (Cardinals) – Most were high on Adam entering last season following his strong numbers in the closers role during the Cardinal’s World Series run. He started slow, but regained form after the All-Star break. With 12 of his final 15 starts being that of the quality variety, Wainwright struck out nearly a batter per inning limiting batters to a 0.217 BAA. His overall numbers however are fairly average. Expect some improvement here.

ERA

W

IP

K

WHIP

3.65

15

210

152

1.28

Starting Pitcher / Dustin McGowan (Blue Jays) – McGowan is a little hit or miss, but his potential is too great to not take a flier as a #4 or #5 starter. He still battles his control at time, but the stuff is there. Through his first full MLB season, he held the opposition to a 0.230 BAA over 169.2 IP and seemed to  get stronger down the stretch posting a 1.143 WHIP over his final 98 innings. In a season where there are not a lot of cheap, clear cut breakout candidates, McGowan is a great option.

ERA

W

IP

K

WHIP

3.95

13

185

160

1.26

Closer / Rafael Soriano (Braves) – Most know about Soriano, but he quietly put up some great numbers last season. He enters the 2008 season as the clear favorite for saves in Atlanta. His K:BB improved to almost 5:1 last season and he walked less than 2 batters per 9. He’ll still K about a batter per inning with potential to do more. On a good Braves team, he should earn 35+ saves if he remains healthy.

ERA

S

IP

K

WHIP

2.77

36

71

75

0.95

Closer / Bob Howry (Cubs) – Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol are the sexy to win the closer’s job, but it’s Howry that should enter the season in the role. He was Lou’s choice when  Ryan Dempster was ineffective & got he the job done. He’s a bulldog that does his job and should rack up some solid save totals.

ERA

S

IP

K

WHIP

3.21

33

74

66

1.16

Closer / Joakim Soria (Royals) – In limited time last season, Soria was very good replacing an injured Octavio Dotel. Despite being in a tough division, the Royals are a team on the rise resulting in a few more late inning save chances. With good ratios across the board and no real threat on his job, Soria should comfortably approach the 30 save mark this season.

ERA

S

IP

K

WHIP

2.64

30

68

77

1.06

-Jeff Bobzin - RotoKingdom Staff Writer




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