Drafting starting pitching is often hit or miss. The top 10-15 of every owner’s draft sheet seems to undergo a facelift from season to season. Selecting the right pitchers is absolutely crucial to the success of your fantasy team. It’s always fun to root for the young flamethrower with the electric stuff, but you need to have that one guy that you can rely on no matter what. Like any MLB team trying to win the World Series, it’s important to have that guy that can be a stopper.

Sitting again atop the rankings in a tier of his own is Johan Santana. Johan’s ratios have slightly regressed over the past couple of seasons and the innings continue to pile, but he remains the most reliable option. Now in NY, he has a chance to eclipse the 20-win plateau again. Another season of stacking the pitching categories is pretty much in the bag for Santana owners.

Jake Peavy is the clear-cut #2 guy, also pretty much sitting in a tier of his own. Jake has pretty poor mechanics and almost always seems to be battling through some sort of injury, but you cannot complain with the results. He continues to strikeout a batter per inning as his two-seamer/slider combo continues to baffle the opposition.

Brandon Webb, Josh Beckett, CC Sabathia, John Lackey and Erik Bedard compile the next tier. Bedard is the high-risk high reward player in the bunch. He moves into a very favorable situation in Seattle and could be a top three starter if he can stay healthy. He hopes that 2008 is the first time in his career that he can get to the 200-inning pitch mark.

Some of the league’s next big things are sitting in the next group headed by Justin Verlander. Verlander’s upper 90’s heater started to ring up some batters in his second full season in the majors. As a result, his K:BB improved from 2.07 to 2.73. He is also entering his third season in the majors, which many believe is the breakout season for most starters. The tier also includes such youngsters as Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels and Dan Haren. While less exciting, owners should also get plenty of value from John Smoltz and Roy Oswalt at this point.

Spots 14-20 are headed by Seattle’s phenom, Felix Hernandez. King Felix also entered his third season & possesses top 5 ability. All that Aaron Harang does is win ball games. He is coming off of back-to-back 16 win seasons with a below average Cincinnati club. He has struck out more than 200 batters over the past three season and has seen his K:BB ratio improve in each of those seasons. Carlos Zambrano remains one of the most intense players in the game and can rack up the K’s with the best of them. His K:BB has actually decreased of the past 3 seasons, but playing for a contending Cubs team could be what the doctor ordered to reverse that trend.

Positions 21-30 include a bunch of interesting options. Rich Hill, Matt Cain and Yovanni Gallardo (knee) lead the pack. Ben Sheets remains a high risk, high reward option of the tier. He has not logged more than 160 innings in over 3 years. James Shields led many to fantasy success in 2007 and could once again prove to be a solid SP2 option in 2008. Tim Lincecum is sure to be high on many draft boards despite a bad offense replacing Barry Bonds in the cleanup slot with Bengie Molina (yikes!). Brett Myers returns to the rotation after a strong season as the closer in Philly. Can he remain strong all season? And Pedro looked solid after returning from shoulder surgery last year and hopes to take the Mets to the promise land.

Some good value can be found in the middle rounds. Chad Billingsley started to live up to the hype in his second season in the Majors. Sinkerballer, Fausto Carmona gave batters fits while owners laughed all the way the bank with that waiver wire addition. Brad Penny finally put together a string of six consecutive solid months & Chien-Ming Wang continues to be a crazy source of wins at this part of the draft.

As you can see, pitching is a roller coaster. So how to you project breakouts? Many look at ERA & WHIP. Although they can be solid indicators, there are usually more underline statistics to look for that can be more reliable. Look for trends in a pitcher’s strikeout to walk ratio (K:BB) as well as their strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) & walks per nine innings (BB/9). When you see a three-year trend where the K: BB and K/9 increase and the BB/9 decrease, you can expect big things.

Earlier in this article I also referenced the Third Year Starter Theory. The thought here is that in a pitcher’s third MLB season, he either breaks out or has a career season. I look into that slightly deeper and call it the 500 IP Theory. Last season we saw Dan Haren, Jeff Francis, Chris Young, Joe Blanton, Erik Bedard & Scott Kazmir eclipse that mark. In season’s past, we have seen pitchers such as Jake Peavy & Barry Zito (Cy Young Season) take that step forward in their 500 IP season. John Lackey reached the mark late into his third season. The following year he improved his ERA by more than a run per nine. Aaron Harang did the same in 2005 when he reached that mark. Other notables that have had breakout seasons or career years at this point were Bronson Arroyo, Kevin Millwood, Chris Capuano, Carlos Silva, Jorge Sosa, Ted Lilly, Dontrelle Willis, Jarrod Washburn, AJ Burnett, CC Sabathia, Javier Vazquez, Tim Hudson, and the list goes on and on.

So who are the 500 IP candidates for 2008? Here is a list of some notables and career IP mark:

• Fausto Carmona (289.2)
• Cole Hamels (315.2)
• Rich Hill (318)
• John Maine (324.2)
• James Shields (339.2)
• Scott Olsen (377.2)
• Paul Maholm (395)
• Justin Verlander (399)
• Zack Duke (401.1)
• Matt Cain (437)
• Ian Snell (448)
• John Patterson (454.1)
• Zack Greinke (456.1)
• Rich Harden (464.2)
• Felix Hernandez (465.2)
• Ervin Santana (487.2)

There is a lot of potential on that list. And while this theory is not bulletproof (thanks a lot Daniel Cabrera!), it’s another indicator that can be used to help project a breakout campaign
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So what are some rules to go by to build a successful fantasy staff?

1. Find your ace. Guys like John Smoltz & Roy Oswalt may not be the most attractive options, but they are very dependable and projectable. That stopper is important
2. It’s a roller coaster. The top 15 this year will look much different again next year. After grabbing your ace, you can afford to stockpile hitting and wait until the middle rounds to grab more pitching.
3. Win the wins. Selecting good pitchers on good teams will boost your position in the rankings. In most leagues, the wins category separates the 75th percentile of the league from the 25th percentile of the league by less than a dozen wins
4. Take some chances late. It’s important to be able to project your players. If you feel good about where you stand, take some fliers late. Selecting high upside players to round out your bench could pay huge dividends if they break out. If they falter, the waiver wire produces some quality grabs.

Good luck and happy drafting.

-Jeff Bobzin - RotoKingdom Staff Writer