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Steve has been doing fantasy baseball for 4 years. He is commissioner of a highly competitve league comprised of RotoKingdom's finest players and has finished 3rd or better each season. The University of Connecticut grad is highly respected on the RK boards for his broad knowledge of baseball and the excellent advice he provides to our readers.

2008 Fantasy Baseball Relief Pitcher Preview

by Stephen Pavlik- Rotokingdom Staff Writer

 
After making the transition from starter to closer in 2006, Papelbon has vaulted up the charts to become one of the most dominant closers in the game.
 
The reliable and steady Wagner should see his save total increase on a staff bolstered by the addition of Johan Santana.
 
Despite turning 40, and no longer dominant, Hoffman should still provide his owners with steady numbers and save totals.
 
Though an injury risk, Gagne could provide his owners with great value having dropped in most drafts. Expecting his numbers of the past however, is a stretch.

As with every other season, there are many questions going into the season regarding the RP position. Certainly you can understand the dilemma of a manager who cannot decide between spending a high pick on a “sure thing,” if there is in fact such, or waiting for the scraps at the end because “a save is a save.” Saves are only one category in a five by five rotisserie league, meaning you have to consider a reliever’s peripheral stats when picking him up. If you grabbed a bunch of SP who have low ratios and can afford to take guys like Todd Jones or Joe Borowski, then certainly take advantage of waiting until the near end of closers being available. Most managers should look to draft at least one reliever who can help lower your ERA and WHIP while increasing your K by a fair amount. Since I mentioned drafting players with low ratios, let’s start with the players who will get you saves as well as help to lower your ratios and increase your strikeouts.

Tier 1 – Rounds 4-6All four of these players provide you with consistency that stretches the entire season.

1. Jonathon Papelbon (Bos – RP)
The world champion Boston Red Sox must be relieved to enter the ninth inning with a lead knowing that Papelbon is manning the hill for the final 3 outs. He dominates his opponents with 12.9 K/9 (2006 - 9.88 K/9) while maintaining a WHIP below .8 for both of the last two seasons. Papelbon outperformed his draft position last season due to questions swirling about his status as the closer or a starting pitcher. This season you won’t be able to get Papelbon for such a bargain as his status as closer is locked up tight. Only three times (3 blown saves) all season did he give up more than a single run in an outing.

2. Francisco Rodriguez (LAA – RP)
K-Rod, as his nickname refers, is a high strikeout (12.0 K/9) closer who has been near the top of rankings since he took over as the Angels closer back in 2004. He provides a low ERA and WHIP, not unlike Papelbon (although not quite as good), while giving you 40+ saves consistently. His WHIP may not drop below 1 as Papelbon and Putz do, but he is a model of consistency. Rodriguez typically follows Papelbon shortly after during one of the infamous closer runs.

3. J.J. Putz (Sea – RP)
The theme of last year’s reliever article was the availability of saves from middle relievers. Putz was my headline player for that concept as he went from a strong 8th inning man to a dominant closer who grabs high value in fantasy leagues. Putz also is another high strikeout (10.3 K/9) closer who helps to lower your ERA and WHIP. Putz was a model of dependability last season blowing only two saves and even was placed in games with the opportunity to win, going 6-1 for the season. He certainly could be considered at #1 as he was the only player other than Papelbon to garner a #1 ranking during our composite rankings.

4. Joe Nathan (Min – RP)
Nathan rounds out the tier one players as another high strikeout, low ratio, closer. He has been a top closer since he moved to Minnesota back in 2004. Nathan stands as the #4 ranked closer, but he gives you statistics similar to Putz and K-Rod. Prior to Papelbon dominating the league, Nathan was in contention for the top closer spot and continues to stand as a fantasy force worth considering in the 4th-6th rounds.

Tier 2 – Rounds 7-9 – These players have fairly secure closers roles with Saito being the only one who really has questions surrounding him.

5. Mariano Rivera (NYY – RP)
6. Billy Wagner (NYM – RP)
Mariano Rivera and Billy Wagner were the only players to manage a ranking in the top 4. Rivera experienced some troubles early on in the season giving up 9 of his 25 earned runs in a two week span. After April came and went, Rivera returned to form giving his patient managers an ERA of 2.26 and WHIP of 1.08 the remainder of the season. This past season was Rivera’s first in five years with an ERA above 1.94 and his first as New York’s closer above 3.0. Rivera has dropped in his fantasy ranking, but he certainly provides you still with quality performances. Across town in Flushing Meadows, Billy Wagner may gain more save opportunities with the likes of Johan Santana joining the staff. Santana lost many close games last season due to a lack of run support, an inadequacy the Mets do not suffer. With Santana, Pedro, John Maine, and Oliver Perez starting games, and Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith and Pedro Feliciano bridging the game to Wagner, I foresee many save opportunities for Wagner.

7. Bobby Jenks (Chi – RP)
Bobby Jenks stands as the only clear closer in the windy city. His strikeout rate dropped last season below the strikeout per inning pitched mark, but this resulted in a lowering of his ERA and WHIP from previous seasons. He entered last season with a few questions about his weight and he responded by showcasing a higher level of command dropping his walks from 31 to 13. He saved 40+ over the last two seasons, but his lower strikeout rate probably results in his lower ranking.

8. Takashi Saito (LAD – RP)
Takashi Saito has many doubters as he enters this season at 38 years old. He has a dominant power pitcher biting at his heels for the closer position in Jonathon Broxton. With speculation that Saito could be surpassed by Broxton this season, Saito’s fantasy statistics are being weighed down. He provided numbers similar to the players in tier 1, but he doesn’t warrant a pick because you certainly don’t want one of your top 6 players losing his starting position. Broxton should be handcuffed to a pick of Saito.

9. Huston Street (Oak – RP)
Huston Street has been a high quality closer since he his day at the University of Texas. Despite pitching very well while on the field, Street struggled with injury last season missing most of the summer. Oakland has quality relievers (Alan Embree) to take the place of Street if he does get injured, so pay attention if you have him so you don’t lose out on an opportunity to maintain getting saves from the Oakland closer if he goes down.

10. Rafael Soriano (Atl – RP)
Soriano enters spring training for the first time as the proclaimed closer. Soriano took over the closing reigns late last season after proving his worth all season as a setup man. The Braves initially brought in Mike Gonzalez last season to close, but an early season injury forced him to the DL and Bob Wickman was once again the closer. Soriano didn’t completely take over the closers role until late in the season and he stands as the closer at this point.

11. Jose Valverde (Hou – RP)
12. Francisco Cordero (Cin – RP)
Both of these players had fantastic seasons for other teams, and bounced for the FA market. Jose Valverde led the league in saves last season and Francisco Cordero was among the leaders. Cordero went through an amazing stretch early in the season saving 22 games and giving up only one earned run until June 5th. Valverde hopes to clean up the closer situation in Houston that was a mess of Brad Lidge and Dan Wheeler for most of the season.

13. Trevor Hoffman (SD – RP)
Hoffman rounds out the second tier of players with consistency that has stretched all the way back to 1994, before SDAL could walk. Hoffman enters this season at 40 years old, which leads some to begin to question his durability as his age rises. Despite his age, he has shown no reasons that we should doubt his ability to close games without flashy strikeout numbers but with finesse.

Tier 3 – Rounds 10-13These are the last players you want to depend upon for saves. After this point, the guys either have no defined role, or are coming off injury.

14. Brad Lidge (Phi – RP)
Lidge appeared to regain some form of his past. He took over the closers role in mid-July after Dan Wheeler had troubles in June keeping his team in the lead. Lidge was once a top closer, striking out 100+ batters from 2004-2006. Lidge would certainly be a bargain at this point in the draft if he could regain form similar to his early days with Houston. Draft Lidge without expecting much more than what he did last season, and you may end up extremely satisfied if he can surge to the top of the closer rankings once again.

15. Jason Isringhausen (Stl – RP)
16. Chad Cordero (Was – RP)
Neither Isringhausen nor Cordero is an attractive closer option. Neither excels at striking players out, but they do manage to get the job done. Isringhausen bounced back in 2007 (1.07 WHIP) from a poor 2006 when he struggled with his command, sporting a WHIP of 1.46. Isringhausen does not dominate games, but he lacks any real competition for his job. Cordero has Jon Rauch if he falters for too long, but don’t worry too much, as Rauch doesn’t appear as a challenger to Cordero, just an injury replacement.

17. Joakim Soria (KC – RP)
18. Manny Corpas (Col – RP)
19. Matt Capps (Pit – RP)
Joakim Soria, Manny Corpas, and Matt Capps all entered last season as a setup reliever, all awaiting their turn at the 9th inning. Soria started the season as the interim closer due to an injury to Octavio Dotel, but Dotel came back and assumed the role as he was paid to do. Soria had to wait until Dotel was traded to Atlanta at the end of July. Look for Soria to provide solid ratios and good strikeout numbers. Corpas and Capps assumed the roles of closer when their predecessor went down with an injury. Corpas took over for Brian Fuentes and never looked back. When Fuentes came back from the DL, there was thought that Fuentes might retake the role, but Corpas provided no reason for Colorado to do such. Capps was behind Salomon Torres to start the season, but a streak of poor games provided Capps with an opportunity. Look for Corpas and Capps as a good opportunity to get cheap saves once you have addressed most of your other needs.

The Rest – Round 14-21There are players here with opportunities to be the closer, player who likely will not record more than a save or two but provide very nice MRP stats, as well as a few guys who maintain a secure closing role, but hurt your ERA and WHIP so much they fall to this point. A few players will be showcased in this section that were ranked from 20th to 42nd.

20. Tony Pena (Ari – RP) – Pena provides good numbers and looks to be a solid closer, but currently sits behind Brandon Lyon. If Lyon falters, Pena will take over, and will rise in the rankings.
22. Eric Gagne (Mil – RP) – Gagne has been brought in to close for the Brew Crew despite his recent injury woes. Gagne could put up some very nice numbers (unlikely matching his Cy Young level seasons), but he is also an injury risk that may take a turn for the worse and not pay off.

26. Todd Jones (Det – RP)
27. Joe Borowski (Cle – RP)

Jones and Borowski are the final two players that have definite closing roles going into this season. It still remains unclear why their respective teams maintain supporting them as the closer. Both get a good number of saves, but their peripherals really hurt and need to be countered by high quality starting pitching.

28. Jonathon Broxton (LAD – RP)
32. Carlos Marmol (ChC – RP)

Broxton stands to take over the closer role once Takashi Saito experiences a decline in his performances. For now, though, Broxton is a top level middle reliever who has the potential to jump up these rankings immediately following the announcement he is the closer. Marmol is another individual who will help lower your ERA and WHIP while providing high strikeout totals. Marmol appears to have the better shot at the start of the season to be the closer, but he currently is in competition with Bob Howry and Kerry Wood. Watch this situation closely and if Marmol is available when he gets the call, grab him.

I would like to end with 4 relievers who are behind secure closers, but will help your team with low ratios and a few wins.

34. Hideki Okajima (Bos – RP)
37. Scot Shields (LAA – RP)
38. Pat Neshek (Min – RP)
42. Heath Bell (SD – RP)

Okajima entered the league last year after spending 10 seasons in the Japanese league. Through the beginning of the season he was dominant, but as the season wore on, and his body adjusted to the longer American season, he faltered a bit. Look for him to maintain a similar level of production, which certainly helps teams that were lacking in quality starting pitching. Shields was not quite as sharp as seasons previous, but he still gave you 9 K/9 and a WHIP that will help teams struggling in that category. Pat Neshek sits behind Joe Nathan and it doesn’t appear that he will take the job anytime soon. In the meantime, Neshek continues to give good strikeout levels and ratios to help an offensive minded drafter. Finally Heath Bell rounds out this review. San Diego used him as their workhorse and he responded with an ERA of 2 and WHIP below 1. He provided nearly as many strikeouts as Chien-Ming Wang in less than half the innings.

One thing to remember is not to stumble into the end of a closer run. By doing that you are likely reaching for a player outside of the value tier he will produce at. Keep our tier concept in mind while drafting, and don’t stress too much over leaving a draft without a large number of saves. You will be able to scavenge saves off of free agency or with the couple names mentioned here.

-Stephen Pavlik - RotoKingdom Staff Writer




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