As with every other season, there are many questions
going into the season regarding the RP position. Certainly you can
understand the dilemma of a manager who cannot decide between spending
a high pick on a “sure thing,” if there is in fact such,
or waiting for the scraps at the end because “a save is a
save.” Saves are only one category in a five by five rotisserie
league, meaning you have to consider a reliever’s peripheral
stats when picking him up. If you grabbed a bunch of SP who have
low ratios and can afford to take guys like Todd Jones or Joe Borowski,
then certainly take advantage of waiting until the near end of closers
being available. Most managers should look to draft at least one
reliever who can help lower your ERA and WHIP while increasing your
K by a fair amount. Since I mentioned drafting players with low
ratios, let’s start with the players who will get you saves
as well as help to lower your ratios and increase your strikeouts.
Tier 1 – Rounds 4-6
– All four of these players provide you with consistency
that stretches the entire season.
1. Jonathon Papelbon (Bos –
RP)
The world champion Boston Red Sox must be relieved to enter the
ninth inning with a lead knowing that Papelbon is manning the
hill for the final 3 outs. He dominates his opponents with 12.9
K/9 (2006 - 9.88 K/9) while maintaining a WHIP below .8 for both
of the last two seasons. Papelbon outperformed his draft position
last season due to questions swirling about his status as the
closer or a starting pitcher. This season you won’t be able
to get Papelbon for such a bargain as his status as closer is
locked up tight. Only three times (3 blown saves) all season did
he give up more than a single run in an outing.
2. Francisco Rodriguez (LAA –
RP)
K-Rod, as his nickname refers, is a high strikeout (12.0 K/9)
closer who has been near the top of rankings since he took over
as the Angels closer back in 2004. He provides a low ERA and WHIP,
not unlike Papelbon (although not quite as good), while giving
you 40+ saves consistently. His WHIP may not drop below 1 as Papelbon
and Putz do, but he is a model of consistency. Rodriguez typically
follows Papelbon shortly after during one of the infamous closer
runs.
3. J.J. Putz (Sea – RP)
The theme of last year’s reliever article was the availability
of saves from middle relievers. Putz was my headline player for
that concept as he went from a strong 8th inning man to a dominant
closer who grabs high value in fantasy leagues. Putz also is another
high strikeout (10.3 K/9) closer who helps to lower your ERA and
WHIP. Putz was a model of dependability last season blowing only
two saves and even was placed in games with the opportunity to
win, going 6-1 for the season. He certainly could be considered
at #1 as he was the only player other than Papelbon to garner
a #1 ranking during our composite rankings.
4. Joe Nathan (Min – RP)
Nathan rounds out the tier one players as another high strikeout,
low ratio, closer. He has been a top closer since he moved to
Minnesota back in 2004. Nathan stands as the #4 ranked closer,
but he gives you statistics similar to Putz and K-Rod. Prior to
Papelbon dominating the league, Nathan was in contention for the
top closer spot and continues to stand as a fantasy force worth
considering in the 4th-6th rounds.
Tier 2 – Rounds 7-9 – These
players have fairly secure closers roles with Saito being the
only one who really has questions surrounding him.
5. Mariano Rivera (NYY – RP)
6. Billy Wagner (NYM – RP)
Mariano Rivera and Billy Wagner were the only players to manage
a ranking in the top 4. Rivera experienced some troubles early
on in the season giving up 9 of his 25 earned runs in a two week
span. After April came and went, Rivera returned to form giving
his patient managers an ERA of 2.26 and WHIP of 1.08 the remainder
of the season. This past season was Rivera’s first in five
years with an ERA above 1.94 and his first as New York’s
closer above 3.0. Rivera has dropped in his fantasy ranking, but
he certainly provides you still with quality performances. Across
town in Flushing Meadows, Billy Wagner may gain more save opportunities
with the likes of Johan Santana joining the staff. Santana lost
many close games last season due to a lack of run support, an
inadequacy the Mets do not suffer. With Santana, Pedro, John Maine, and
Oliver Perez starting games, and Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith and
Pedro Feliciano bridging the game to Wagner, I foresee many save
opportunities for Wagner.
7. Bobby Jenks (Chi – RP)
Bobby Jenks stands as the only clear closer in the windy city.
His strikeout rate dropped last season below the strikeout per
inning pitched mark, but this resulted in a lowering of his ERA
and WHIP from previous seasons. He entered last season with a
few questions about his weight and he responded by showcasing
a higher level of command dropping his walks from 31 to 13. He
saved 40+ over the last two seasons, but his lower strikeout rate
probably results in his lower ranking.
8. Takashi Saito (LAD – RP)
Takashi Saito has many doubters as he enters this season at 38
years old. He has a dominant power pitcher biting at his heels
for the closer position in Jonathon Broxton. With speculation
that Saito could be surpassed by Broxton this season, Saito’s
fantasy statistics are being weighed down. He provided numbers
similar to the players in tier 1, but he doesn’t warrant
a pick because you certainly don’t want one of your top
6 players losing his starting position. Broxton should be handcuffed
to a pick of Saito.
9. Huston Street (Oak – RP)
Huston Street has been a high quality closer since he his day
at the University of Texas. Despite pitching very well while on
the field, Street struggled with injury last season missing most
of the summer. Oakland has quality relievers (Alan Embree) to
take the place of Street if he does get injured, so pay attention
if you have him so you don’t lose out on an opportunity
to maintain getting saves from the Oakland closer if he goes down.
10. Rafael Soriano (Atl – RP)
Soriano enters spring training for the first time as the proclaimed
closer. Soriano took over the closing reigns late last season
after proving his worth all season as a setup man. The Braves
initially brought in Mike Gonzalez last season to close, but an
early season injury forced him to the DL and Bob Wickman was once
again the closer. Soriano didn’t completely take over the
closers role until late in the season and he stands as the closer
at this point.
11. Jose Valverde (Hou – RP)
12. Francisco Cordero (Cin – RP)
Both of these players had fantastic seasons for other teams, and
bounced for the FA market. Jose Valverde led the league in saves
last season and Francisco Cordero was among the leaders. Cordero
went through an amazing stretch early in the season saving 22
games and giving up only one earned run until June 5th. Valverde
hopes to clean up the closer situation in Houston that was a mess
of Brad Lidge and Dan Wheeler for most of the season.
13. Trevor Hoffman (SD – RP)
Hoffman rounds out the second tier of players with consistency
that has stretched all the way back to 1994, before SDAL could
walk. Hoffman enters this season at 40 years old, which leads
some to begin to question his durability as his age rises. Despite
his age, he has shown no reasons that we should doubt his ability
to close games without flashy strikeout numbers but with finesse.
Tier 3 – Rounds 10-13
– These are the last players you want to depend
upon for saves. After this point, the guys either have no defined
role, or are coming off injury.
14. Brad Lidge (Phi – RP)
Lidge appeared to regain some form of his past. He took over the
closers role in mid-July after Dan Wheeler had troubles in June
keeping his team in the lead. Lidge was once a top closer, striking
out 100+ batters from 2004-2006. Lidge would certainly be a bargain
at this point in the draft if he could regain form similar to
his early days with Houston. Draft Lidge without expecting much
more than what he did last season, and you may end up extremely
satisfied if he can surge to the top of the closer rankings once
again.
15. Jason Isringhausen (Stl –
RP)
16. Chad Cordero (Was – RP)
Neither Isringhausen nor Cordero is an attractive closer option.
Neither excels at striking players out, but they do manage to
get the job done. Isringhausen bounced back in 2007 (1.07 WHIP)
from a poor 2006 when he struggled with his command, sporting
a WHIP of 1.46. Isringhausen does not dominate games, but he lacks
any real competition for his job. Cordero has Jon Rauch if he
falters for too long, but don’t worry too much, as Rauch
doesn’t appear as a challenger to Cordero, just an injury
replacement.
17. Joakim Soria (KC – RP)
18. Manny Corpas (Col – RP)
19. Matt Capps (Pit – RP)
Joakim Soria, Manny Corpas, and Matt Capps all entered last season
as a setup reliever, all awaiting their turn at the 9th inning.
Soria started the season as the interim closer due to an injury to Octavio
Dotel, but Dotel came back and assumed the role as he was paid
to do. Soria had to wait until Dotel was traded to Atlanta at
the end of July. Look for Soria to provide solid ratios and good
strikeout numbers. Corpas and Capps assumed the roles of closer
when their predecessor went down with an injury. Corpas took over
for Brian Fuentes and never looked back. When Fuentes came back
from the DL, there was thought that Fuentes might retake the role,
but Corpas provided no reason for Colorado to do such. Capps was
behind Salomon Torres to start the season, but a streak of poor
games provided Capps with an opportunity. Look for Corpas and
Capps as a good opportunity to get cheap saves once you have addressed
most of your other needs.
The Rest – Round 14-21
– There are players here with opportunities to be
the closer, player who likely will not record more than a save
or two but provide very nice MRP stats, as well as a few guys
who maintain a secure closing role, but hurt your ERA and WHIP
so much they fall to this point. A few players will be showcased
in this section that were ranked from 20th to 42nd.
20. Tony Pena (Ari – RP)
– Pena provides good numbers and looks to be a solid closer,
but currently sits behind Brandon Lyon. If Lyon falters, Pena
will take over, and will rise in the rankings.
22. Eric Gagne (Mil – RP) –
Gagne has been brought in to close for the Brew Crew despite his
recent injury woes. Gagne could put up some very nice numbers
(unlikely matching his Cy Young level seasons), but he is also
an injury risk that may take a turn for the worse and not pay
off.
26. Todd Jones (Det – RP)
27. Joe Borowski (Cle – RP)
Jones and Borowski are the final two players that
have definite closing roles going into this season. It still remains
unclear why their respective teams maintain supporting them as
the closer. Both get a good number of saves, but their peripherals
really hurt and need to be countered by high quality starting
pitching.
28. Jonathon Broxton (LAD –
RP)
32. Carlos Marmol (ChC – RP)
Broxton stands to take over the closer role once
Takashi Saito experiences a decline in his performances. For now,
though, Broxton is a top level middle reliever who has the potential
to jump up these rankings immediately following the announcement
he is the closer. Marmol is another individual who will help lower
your ERA and WHIP while providing high strikeout totals. Marmol
appears to have the better shot at the start of the season to
be the closer, but he currently is in competition with Bob Howry
and Kerry Wood. Watch this situation closely and if Marmol is
available when he gets the call, grab him.
I would like to end with 4 relievers who are behind
secure closers, but will help your team with low ratios and a
few wins.
34. Hideki Okajima (Bos – RP)
37. Scot Shields (LAA – RP)
38. Pat Neshek (Min – RP)
42. Heath Bell (SD – RP)
Okajima entered the league last year after spending
10 seasons in the Japanese league. Through the beginning of the
season he was dominant, but as the season wore on, and his body
adjusted to the longer American season, he faltered a bit. Look
for him to maintain a similar level of production, which certainly
helps teams that were lacking in quality starting pitching. Shields
was not quite as sharp as seasons previous, but he still gave
you 9 K/9 and a WHIP that will help teams struggling in that category.
Pat Neshek sits behind Joe Nathan and it doesn’t appear
that he will take the job anytime soon. In the meantime, Neshek
continues to give good strikeout levels and ratios to help an
offensive minded drafter. Finally Heath Bell rounds out this review.
San Diego used him as their workhorse and he responded with an
ERA of 2 and WHIP below 1. He provided nearly as many strikeouts
as Chien-Ming Wang in less than half the innings.
One thing to remember is not to stumble into the end
of a closer run. By doing that you are likely reaching for a player
outside of the value tier he will produce at. Keep our tier concept
in mind while drafting, and don’t stress too much over leaving
a draft without a large number of saves. You will be able to scavenge
saves off of free agency or with the couple names mentioned here.
-Stephen Pavlik - RotoKingdom Staff Writer