AFC SOUTH 
Houston Texans – Since coming into the league
in 2002, the Texans have never sniffed the playoffs. It’s about
time the Texans nudged their way to their first-ever winning season.
But in a division and a conference so tough, that will have to satisfy
them until next year. The playoffs are a tall order in 2008. However,
I really do think they have it in them to sneak into the #6 spot. I’m
open to being surprised here.
On paper, the Texans appear to have an atrocious running game. As I
write this, Ahman Green appears to be the starter. That’s not
good. But rookie Steve Slaton has shown enough burst and toughness that
he may end up a 20-carry man by year’s end. And unheralded Chris
Taylor is someone the Texans really like. If that squad can gut out
a few first downs every so often, WR Andre Johnson can handle the rest.
He’s really become an elite NFL receiver, and he can defeat the
double-teams that routinely come his way with a little help from his
friends. TE Owen Daniels is really the #2 receiving option in Houston,
although WR Kevin Walter quietly had an effective 2007 campaign. Look
for the speedy WR Andre Davis to also contribute to moving the chains.
QBs Matt Schaub and Sage Rosenfels are both capable of taking the team
on their shoulders if the running game gives out. The question is: can
the offensive line protect them? First-round draft pick Duane Brown
was a terrific reach, and there’s some question about his readiness
to assume a starting role at left tackle. His success will determine
the strength of the Texans offense.
The Texans have famously invested quite a few first-round picks on
their defensive line. Travis Johnson, Amobi Okoye and Mario Williams
had better produce this year. Johnson seems to be the only one threatening
to assume the ol’ “bust” epithet, but even he can
redeem himself. MLB DeMeco Ryans continues to rack up the tackles for
Houston. Morlon Greenwood and promising 2nd-year man Zach Diles will
flank him. The safeties in Houston are a weak bunch, with C.C. Brown
and Will Demps manning the deepest part of the field. Marion Barber’s
brother Dominique was a draft pick in April, and he’ll provide
some relief there. At cornerback, Fred Bennett had a very strong year,
and the team hopes he can become an elite cover man in short order.
The Texans will have to wait for Dunta Robinson to heal before he re-enters
the lineup. Former Cowboy Jacque Reeves appears to have the edge on
rookie Antwaun Moulden, who has really impressed the Texans coaching
staff. Within a couple years, Houston may just have one of the best
pairs of corners in the league in Bennett and Moulden. But for now,
it’s a learning process.
There are still plenty of holes on this team, but they’re putting
together a really interesting squad. With true greatness at WR, DE and
MLB – and great promise at CB – the Texans won’t be
out of the playoffs much longer.
Strength: defensive line
Weakness: safety
2008 MVP’s: Andre Johnson & DeMeco Ryans
Unsung hero: Sage Rosenfels
Record last year: 8-8
Record this year: 9-7
Indianapolis Colts – It’s almost unthinkable:
Peyton Manning injured! Since taking his first snap ten years ago, Peyton
has barely shown any sign of weakness. The notion that an infection
in his surgically-repaired knee could sideline him at some point this
season is every bit as foreign as Brett Favre in a Jets jersey. But
here we are, now seriously asking ourselves the question: What ARE the
Colts without Peyton? Hopefully, we won’t know in 2008. Because
it can’t be pretty.
QB Jim Sorgi is once again the only other signal-caller on the roster.
In the past, he’s proven somewhat capable. But last year and this
pre-season, Sorgi has looked like a mistake waiting to happen. If Manning
does take a few games off, this is a very different team. WRs Reggie
Wayne and a-finally-healthy Marvin Harrison are still among the best
pairings of receivers in the league. Sophomore Anthony Gonzalez really
excelled late in 2007, and he expects to see a few balls coming his
way too. TE Dallas Clark was a frequent red-zone option for the team,
and he’ll continue in that role. New H-back Gijon Robinson may
be a surprising reliable receiver as well. This team is loaded there.
Let’s not forget the running game! Joseph Addai found the end
zone more than just about every other back last year. His old running
mate, Dominic Rhodes, is back after his vacation in Oakland (try Hawaii
next time!). #3 back Mike Hart had a great pre-season, so he may see
a few carries in his rookie campaign too. The normally-reliable offensive
line has undergone a few changes. Guard Jake Scott is now with division-rival
Tennessee. Pro-Bowler Jeff Saturday and guard Ryan Lilja sit out injured.
The Colts invested 3 draft picks into center/guard hybrids for just
this reason. Mike Pollak will take over at center for the time being,
and Steve Justice should also see some time eventually. Tackle Tony
Ugoh had an up-and-down season protecting Manning’s blind side,
and the Colts will need a big year out of him to keep their franchise
QB upright.
The teeny-tiny Colts D just keeps getting smaller. Starting Des Dwight
Freeney and Robert Mathis are both considered undersized by NFL standards
for the position. The same is true for all of their starting linebackers.
Still, they usually make plays. Freeney has seen his sack totals decrease
each of the past two years, and the team really needs him to rebound.
There is almost no depth along the D-line. 2007’s new set of corners,
Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden, were big surprises. They were dramatic
improvements, and they seem to be keepers. The Colts also have a fabulous
set of safeties, with Bob Sanders among the best in the NFL. Antoine
Bethea and Matt Giordano are both solid in the backfield. Somehow, this
squad defies the odds and makes big plays, despite their size and frequent
trips to the injury list.
The Colts have been on top of their division for a long time. But the
injury to Marvin Harrison and the off-season surgery of Peyton Manning
seem to signal (to me, at least) a potential changing of the guard.
Soon.
Strength: wide receiver
Weakness: linebacker
2008 MVP’s: Peyton Manning & Bob Sanders
Unsung hero: Matt Giordano
Record last year: 13-3 (playoffs)
Record this year: 10-6 (playoffs)
Jacksonville Jaguars – It’s long been
an NFL adage: if your team can run… and stop the run… you’re
playoff bound. That certainly held true for the Jaguars. Few teams are
as committed to the run as this team. And the D held opposing teams
to about 100 yards per game. It helped to cover up the weaknesses of
other positions on the team, and it led them to a playoff victory. But
can it lead them to a division victory this year?
QB David Garrard was the big story at this time last year. Abruptly,
he became the starter when 1st rounder Byron Leftwich was dumped. Garrard
repaid the team’s confidence in him with an almost mistake-free
season – only 2 interceptions on the year. The afore-mentioned
commitment to the run prevented Garrard from having a lights-out year
statistically, but there is some hope there. The Jags acquired a few
players with interesting potential at wide receiver: Jerry Porter and
Troy Williamson. Both have been labeled as busts after tours of duty
with Oakland and Minnesota respectively. Cokehead WR Matt Jones may
have a chance to redeem himself this year as well. TE Marcedes Lewis
has been hyped as a big-play receiver too, but I’ll believe it
when I see it. Running back Fred Taylor enjoyed his very first Pro Bowl
year, but honestly, he can’t have much more left in him. 2007
may have been his Curtis Martin-esque last gasp. Maurice Jones-Drew
will finally take over as the starter before year’s end.
The priority for the Jags defense this year was the pass-rush. Jacksonville
is already looking past Indy, and they’ve got their sights on
New England. They saw clearly the way the Giants beat up on Tom Brady
on their way to an improbable Super Bowl win. To that end, the Jaguars
drafted pass-rush specialist Quentin Groves in the second, and they
reached for Derrick Harvey in the first (and he made them pay for it
by sitting out of camp longer than any other rookie). Neither of them
are penciled in to start the year. The team is counting on Reggie Hayward
Paul Spicer for that. Very soon, Spicer will sit, and the rookies will
platoon opposite Hayward. MLB Mike Peterson is entering his last year
under contract, and he’s not likely to be resigned. Peterson will
need to really show off his talents this year if he wants a decent contract
in 2009. Backup Justin Durant is being groomed for Peterson’s
job, so we should see plenty of him. Standout cornerback Rashean Mathis
has a new teammate in former Charger Drayton Florence. Antonio Cromartie
may have made Florence obsolete in San Diego, but he’s still a
better-than-average corner. The team signed veteran William James to
provide a little depth, but they’re still praying for a stretch
of good health for Mathis and Florence. At safety, Jacksonville is expecting
big things from Reggie Nelson. After a fine rookie season, Nelson has
looked superb in 2008 so far. The unit long anchored by the stout defensive
line play of John Henderson is now transitioning to a stronger backfield.
I don’t see drastic improvement here, but maintaining the status
quo should be enough to move the Jags to the head of the AFC South pack
(or whatever the name is for a bunch of jaguars – herd? coven?
whatever…)
Strength: running back
Weakness: wide receiver
2008 MVP’s: Maurice Jones-Drew & Rashean Mathis
Unsung hero: Justin Durant
Record last year: 11-5 (playoffs)
Record this year: 11-5 (playoffs)
Tennessee Titans – Does Uncle Scurvy have it
out for Vince Young? He is ALWAYS baggin’ on the guy. 6-10?! No
effin’ way! Let it go, man!
As much as I respect head coach Jeff Fisher, he’s had to do more
with less than any other coach in recent memory. The Titans GM is a
hump. When the most important free agent acquisition you’ve made
is WR Justin McCareins, you just aren’t doing your job. McCareins
will try to help elevate this piss-poor receiving corps, along with
fellow starter Justin Gage. Brandon Jones comes off the bench to help
out a bit too. But this is a team of running backs and tight ends primarily.
TE Alge Crumpler comes off an injury-plagued year to try to give a boost,
and returning favorite Bo Scaife will compliment Crumpler. Incumbent
RB LenDale White surprised many last year by 1) staying healthy, 2)
putting up good numbers, and 3) not eating himself out of the league.
He’s joined by hotshot rookie Chris Johnson. What seemed like
a draft-day blunder may turn out to be an inspired choice. Johnson has
a burst like few running backs we’ve seen in a long while. The
duo will be used primarily the way the Saints used Deuce McAllister
and Reggie Bush in 2006… probably with similar results. The untold
story on this offense is the line play. Left tackle Michael Roos is
quietly becoming one of the best in the AFC. Guard Jake Scott comes
over from the Colts. Center Kevin Mawae is just about done, but his
intellect alone can help his line protect QB Vince Young from attack.
Oh… and there’s Vince Young too. Now that The Hype Machine
is effectively destroyed, I’ll let the guy off the hook for a
little while. It was unreasonable for anyone to expect greatness out
of the guy, and I’m glad folks get that now.
On the opposite end of The Hype Machine… MLB Keith Bulluck deserves
much more respect than he gets. After only one Pro Bowl appearance,
Bulluck still finds himself near the top in tackle totals most seasons.
This off-season, there was a bit of a defensive purge though, with DEs
Travis LaBoy & Antwan Odom and DT Randy Starks leaving town. They
kept their best lineman though. DT Albert Haynesworth made a play for
Defensive Player of the Year in 2007. When he missed a handful of games
mid-season, the difference was night and day. With Haynesworth, the
Titans were a top-five D. Without him, they gave up loads of points.
At defensive end, Kyle Vanden Bosch delivered on the promise he showed
in Arizona, and he picked up 12 sacks. He’s joined by former Titan
Jevon Kearse, now quite a bit older than “The Freak” who
used to terrorize quarterbacks here. Another of the under-appreciated
in Tennessee is cornerback Cortland Finnegan. At least the team recognizes
his worth; Finnegan signed a big contract this off-season to stay in
Nashville.
The Titans just can’t keep this up. They have been winning with
special teams play and defensive fortitude long enough. The defense
took a hit in the off-season. And the weakness on offense is bound to
show, and it should happen this year.
Strength: offensive line
Weakness: wide receiver
2008 MVP’s: Michael Roos & Keith Bulluck
Unsung hero: Chris Johnson
Record last year: 10-6 (playoffs)
Record this year: 6-10
- Uncle Scurvy - RotoKingdom Staff Writer
